Expert or Imposter
Have you heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect? It seems to have popped up everywhere I looked the last few weeks.
It’s the tendency for people with little or no experience in something to overestimate their ability. Simply put - they have far more confidence than they should.
But it can also work in reverse. People with a high level of skill or experience can underestimate just how capable they really are.
Either way, it comes down to one thing: we’re not always great at accurately assessing capability, our own or other people’s.
Let me give you an example.
A few years ago, when travel finally opened up again after COVID, we headed to Chicago to visit our daughter who was studying there. And while we were there, I wanted to tick something off the bucket-list, and see my first ever baseball game.
Where better than Wrigley Field - home of the Cubs.
After the game, riding the high of travel, baseball, and beer that comes in those massive plastic cups, I agreed to jump into a batting cage at a sports bar.
Now, in my mind, this was going to be fine. I played softball as a kid. I had good hand-eye coordination. They said they’d set it to beginner level…How hard could it be?
The balls came out so fast I didn’t even have time to swing!
What the hell? It didn’t look that fast when I was watching the pro’s.
After what felt like a dozen balls flying past my head, I finally connected with one. The shock that ran through my hand was immediate. My wedding ring jammed into my finger, swelling kicked in instantly, I thought I had broken my hand, and in the end the ring had to be cut off with pliers.
Turns out, my self-assessment was wildly inaccurate.
The problem was I not only overestimated my ability (yeah, not sure how I thought I could hit a baseball like a pro) but that I completely missed the reality of my experience.
And that’s something we do in leadership all the time.
We overestimate capability. We underestimate potential. We make calls on people, performance, and opportunities - based on opinion and information that isn’t always as accurate as we think it is.
We become poor translators of capability.
And that can have big consequences. Not just for us, but for the people around us.
Have a think about it. How often have you backed someone who wasn’t quite ready? Or overlooked someone who absolutely was?
How often have you doubted your own ability to step up when you were more than capable -but you didn’t give yourself credit? Or you have seen people take all of the opportunities for representing the organisation when you know that maybe you, or someone else was better suited.
When your ego gets the better of you in your personal life it is just a funny story about a batting cage (with a terrible video to match).
But when you're in leadership, the choices you make affect decisions, impacts confidence, and ultimately influences the culture of a team.
Now, I can guarantee we’re never going to get this right all the time.
But we can get better at it.
Not by trying to be perfect - but by becoming better translators.
Awareness – recognising that your perception might not always match reality
Openness – being willing to hear perspectives that challenge your first judgement
Reflection – looking back and asking, “Did I/we get that right?”
Support – sometimes you need someone outside the moment to help you see what you can’t
Because sometimes we overestimate. Sometimes we underestimate.
And good leadership isn’t about getting it right every time - it’s about having the awareness and support to navigate both.
